Analysts warn May could reverse Bitcoin’s April gains
Bitcoin rose about 11% in April; analysts point to a recurring midterm-year May peak that preceded 61–66% drops in past cycles and could push prices near $30,000.
Bitcoin rose about 11% in April after a 1.81% gain in March following five straight monthly losses from October 2025 through February 2026. The April advance is the strongest monthly print since April 2025 if the gain holds.
Several analysts pointed to a recurring pattern in U.S. midterm years. Data show May has been a local high in 2014, 2018 and 2022, each followed by declines of roughly 61% to 66%. Analyst Merlijn The Trader wrote in a social media post that the pattern could repeat and that a reversal might push Bitcoin toward $30,000, adding the phrase, “Sell in May and go away. Only in mid-term years, every time.”
Coinglass data showed May closed lower in two of the three prior midterm years. Binance Research reported that Bitcoin has averaged about a 56% decline during U.S. midterm election years.
On-chain and market-structure indicators supplied further detail. Crypto Dan described the market as remaining in a “typical bear cycle” and pointed to negative funding rates as a sign of weak futures-market sentiment. Glassnode reported price rejection at the True Market Mean and at the short-term holder cost basis, stating, “This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum.”
Glassnode data also showed the 24-hour simple moving average of short-term holder realized profit rose to about $4 million per hour as Bitcoin approached $80,000, indicating short-term holders were taking realized gains.
Views on timing and depth of a potential decline differed. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, projected a base-case bottom in October 2026 while allowing that a sooner trough in May could occur only if “there would have to be some type of massive capitulation well below what we historically expect to see in midterm years.” He presented the earlier date as a conditional scenario rather than the base case.
Institutional indicators provided mixed signals. Chicago Mercantile Exchange open interest and assets under management for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds showed early signs of recovery. Binance Research tracked roughly 54% gains in the 12 months following prior midterm-year weakness, a pattern that could reflect recoveries after sharp selloffs. Some market participants highlighted that persistent short positioning could create the conditions for a short squeeze if buying demand returns.
Traders and investors will be watching May price action for confirmation of either a reversal toward lower levels or a resumption of broader upside momentum.
